Republicans avoided a national-stage upset in December when money, attention and hopes flooded into a special-election showdown between progressive Democrat Aftyn Behn and former state official Matt Van Epps, a relatively unknown Republican tasked with succeeding Rep. Mark Green in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. Midterms this year could be three times the sweat for the party that redrew Nashville’s historically Democratic 5th Congressional District seat, carving and separating Nashville into three GOP-favored districts back in 2022.
With every U.S. congressional seat up for a vote this year, it’s unlikely Tennessee — which holds nine congressional districts in total — will be spoiled with the same outside spending or outsized hype. But Republicans’ grip on national politics could slip much further over the next 11 months with an increasingly unpopular president and internal divisions tearing at party seams. Behn’s 9-point loss — a significant Dem overperformance compared to prior elections — is a high-water mark for the state’s opposition party.
Next door in Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District, Democrats’ D.C. machine has sized up scandal-ridden incumbent U.S. Rep. Andy Ogles for an upset, helping get Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder off to a handsome start. Ogles has struggled to raise money and carries a short record in office pocked by ethics and campaign finance blunders.Â
Republican U.S. Rep. John Rose has already announced an ambitious bid for governor, leaving his seat in Tennessee’s 6th Congressional District open. Van Hilleary, a four-term congressman in the 1990s and Rose’s chief of staff, quickly jumped into the race. Democrats have yet to field a serious challenger for the seat, which draws together Antioch, East Nashville, Cookeville and Crossville. Behn, a spirited campaigner who technically lives in Rose’s district, could capitalize on her previous campaign with another run at Van Epps — or a run in her home district. Democrat Justin Jones, a fellow East Nashville state representative, has teased his own big announcement on social media.
U.S. Sen. Bill Hagerty is up for reelection this year, though no established Democrats have stepped up to challenge the first-term senator. Meanwhile, U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn’s race to replace term-limited Gov. Bill Lee looms in the background. Her decade-long reign over Tennessee politics gives the second-term senator considerable campaign advantages, and she’s expected to cakewalk to the governor’s mansion. Whoever lines up to fill her open seat, though, will immediately climb into the highest echelon of state political power. A special election won’t be called until Blackburn vacates her seat, making 2026 a year for GOP hopefuls to jockey for her blessing. Expect serious schmoozing from wannabes under 60, a group led by state House Speaker Cameron Sexton, state House Majority Leader William Lamberth and Senate Majority Leader Jack Johnson. This background dynamic could also create internal divisions between Sexton, Lamberth, Johnson and other Republicans during this year’s state legislative session as each tries to prove their mettle as a potential U.S. senator.
From midterm elections and the Music City Loop to zoning reform and AI, here are eight stories to watch in the coming year
