This story is a partnership between the Nashville Banner and the Nashville Scene. The Nashville Banner is a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization focused on civic news. Visit nashvillebanner.com for more information.
U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn has led the Republican race for governor of Tennessee since she threw her hat in the ring last year, but that margin is shrinking, according to new polls.
A new poll by OnMessage Wednesday showed Blackburn’s lead at fewer than 4 percentage points, with U.S. Rep. John Rose in second, and state Rep. Monty Fritts (R-Kingston) fewer than 6 points behind Rose. While Blackburn’s campaign dismissed the poll — by far the closest poll published during the race — even conflicting numbers are indicative of a closer but still Blackburn-led race.
The poll of 800 likely Republican primary voters conducted last week asked who respondents would support, showing Blackburn on top with 34.5 percent planning or leaning toward voting for her, followed by Rose with 31 percent, Fritts with 25.6 and 9 percent of respondents saying they were undecided.
Trump-loving John Rose and liberal Jerri Green share one thing: wanting to beat Marsha Blackburn
Blackburn has led the pack all year, with polls showing her anywhere from 15 to 60 percentage points ahead, but her lead has declined in recent weeks as Rose poured millions of his own dollars into advertising and after an awkward television interview and a lack of public debate drew scrutiny of Blackburn.
While Rose’s campaign says it did not commission the poll, it was conducted by OnMessage, a national conservative consulting firm that has done work for Rose. Wes Anderson, who ran the poll, tells the Nashville Banner it was conducted at the behest of a corporate client in Tennessee and not the Rose campaign, though he would not disclose the company and acknowledges that his partner Brad Todd — an OnMessage consultant who also worked on the state’s congressional redistricting this summer — was working with Rose. Anderson also did polling for Rose in 2018.
“It’s a jump ball, it’s anyone’s race,” Anderson tells the Banner, adding that he wouldn’t “put any money” on either candidate winning.
Anderson attributes the narrowing gap to Blackburn’s declining favor among Tennessee Republicans. The poll also indicates Blackburn is the best-known but most divisive candidate in the field, with 47 percent favorability among the likely voters, and 50 percent viewing her unfavorably. Forty-five percent of respondents view Rose favorably, and 31 percent view him unfavorably. Fritts lacked name recognition, with 33 percent viewing him favorably and 16 percent unfavorably.
Blackburn’s campaign rebuffs the numbers, saying it had received polling Wednesday morning reflecting 850 responses from this week that was greater than 15 points off of the new OnMessage poll, showing Blackburn with a far more comfortable lead. Blackburn’s campaign would not share the poll for publication.
Abbi Sigler, a spokesperson for Blackburn’s campaign, snubs the poll, comparing it to the 2020 Senate primary between Sen. Bill Hagerty and Republican Manny Sethi. Chris Devaney, now Rose’s campaign manager, followed a similar cadence of releasing poll data while running Sethi’s campaign, which similarly predicted the primary would be within the margin of error.
Ultimately, Hagerty won by 11.4 points.
“More of the same tired playbook from the Rose campaign," Sigler tells the Banner. "Their 2020 playbook failed then, and it will fail again now. This is a desperate attempt by political consultants to get their candidate to invest even more than the $10 million of his own money he's already poured in. Marsha Blackburn is going to be the Republican nominee and then the 51st governor of the state of Tennessee."
With the governor's race on the ballot, candidates are working to get voters on their side as polls open on Friday
Devaney, Rose’s campaign manager, tells the Banner that the pendulum is swinging in Rose’s direction, comparing the race to Gov. Bill Lee’s primary win in 2018, which he also managed.
“John Rose continues to have momentum," Devaney says. "Voters are looking for a CEO to lead the state, and are clearly rejecting a 34-year career politician as Sen. Blackburn’s numbers continue to plummet."
Even with the apparently good news for Rose, Anderson notes that it’s too late for either candidate to move the needle much further.
“The question becomes, 'Is there enough runway left for Rose to actually close the gap? Is there enough of a runway for Blackburn to recover?'” Anderson says. “With a week left, I don’t have the answer to that.”
Notably, both polls show Fritts in a similar position, suggesting the Christian nationalist state lawmaker had gained ground this summer as well. According to Anderson, much of Fritts’ support is among men under 30, the only notable demographic difference between the candidates. While the poll selected likely primary voters, young male voters are the least likely demographic to vote in either party’s primary.
Political polling, particularly in a party primary, is an imperfect science and should be taken with a grain of salt. But regardless of whether Blackburn or Anderson’s poll is more accurate, the senior senator’s lead has certainly taken a hit this summer, with Fritts and Rose both gaining on her since the initial name recognition polling, which made her the presumed frontrunner and suggested pretty comfortable margins.
Still, even in the most optimistic polling, Blackburn has always remained in the lead.
Early voting is underway through Saturday. Primary Election Day is Aug. 6. You can find more information about this and other races on the ballot in the Nashville Banner's voter guide.
This article first appeared on the Nashville Banner and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
This article first appeared on Nashville Banner and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
