A Last-Day Rush Caps Busy Early Voting

Davidson County voters rushed to the polls Thursday, doubling high early voting ballot totals that already outpace the 2022 midterms by 57 percent. It’s difficult to call the last-day rush, which approached 20,000 votes, procrastination — Election Day is next week, after all — as Middle Tennessee counties lead statewide trends through all 14 days of early voting. Including absentee ballots, nearly 150,000 people have already voted in Davidson County, roughly a third of all eligible voters. Some 94,600 voted in the same timeframe in 2022.

Midterm elections usually lag behind presidential years, but energy is unusually high this year due to a historically unpopular president, national outrage over consumer prices and what many voters view as an aimless war in Iran. Turnout trends look good for Democrats, who will depend on urban and suburban counties like Shelby, Davidson, Hamilton, Williamson, Montgomery and Wilson to offset conservative voters in rural areas. Montgomery County, home to fast-growing Clarksville and its purple suburbs, leads the entire state with a 69.1 percent turnout jump over 2022.

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Mayor Freddie O’Connell highlighted the turnout at a Friday morning press conference. Weeks ago, he dedicated $100,000 from his PAC to a voting program run by the Tennessee Democratic Party.

“ We have put a lot of time and effort into ensuring we have secure, reliable elections that every voter can have confidence in,” O’Connell told reporters. “Making your voice heard is critical. I was encouraged to see a great turnout last night as early voting came to a close and encourage Nashvillians to take advantage of that opportunity to vote on Election Day on Tuesday.”

Library branches in Bellevue, Hermitage and Crieve Hall led Davidson County's early voting. All tallied more than 15,000 votes, with the Hermitage Branch notching the largest single-site total at 16,922. Locations in Bordeaux, Green Hills, Madison and Antioch made up the second tier with ballot totals above 10,000. After losing the county’s single congressional seat — held for years by Democratic U.S. Rep. Jim Cooper — in 2022, Nashville voters are divided between three districts for the second consecutive cycle.

Most of the county chooses between Democratic political strategist Darden Copeland and incumbent Republican Matt Van Epps in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. State Rep. Johnny Garrett (R-Goodlettsville) faces Democrat Mike Croley in the 6th Congressional District, which takes a big slice of East Nashville and downtown, while GOP fixture U.S. Rep. Scott DesJarlais eyes his ninth term in Congress against Democrat Victoria Broderick. 

Disaffected Conservatives Are Flocking to Independent David Hatley

East Tennessee businessman's rallies sample popular issues, revealing major weaknesses for frontrunner Marsha Blackburn

Gubernatorial challengers Jerri Green, a Memphis Democrat, and David Hatley, a conservative businessman from northeast Tennessee running as an independent, have made recent polling gains on Republican U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn, who announced her pivot to the governor’s mansion 10 months after winning her second Senate term. Both Hatley and Green have crisscrossed the state and packed their schedules with campaign events hoping to overcome Blackburn’s frontrunner status. Hatley, who made a fortune in hot tub sales and manufacturing, has personally kicked in $12 million to his run, which he says was inspired by God. Together, the two could pull Blackburn below 50 percent, with many Republicans defecting to Hatley.

In terms of voter turnout thus far, Williamson County leads the state with 38 percent. A pair of competitive congressional races split the county in two. State Rep. Justin Pearson (D-Memphis) vies with Republican state Sen. Brent Taylor (R-Memphis) for Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District, which includes parts of Brentwood and suburbs east of I-16. Recent reporting from the Scene revealed Taylor’s history of sexting, including sending unsolicited nude images as recently as 2021, reshaping the Republican’s image as a Christian family man. Pearson’s race has accumulated national support and campaign funding but faces an uphill battle in a district that voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump in the past three presidential elections.

Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, a Democrat, faces Gov. Bill Lee’s former Tennessee Commissioner of Agriculture Charlie Hatcher, a Republican, in Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District, which includes the western half of Williamson County. Ad spending on two competitive races across the area has likely helped juice turnout, which now stands at 73,000 votes.

Shelby and Hamilton counties join Middle Tennessee with high early turnout numbers. Memphis voters were rebuffed by Republican state lawmakers’ choice to split their city into three congressional districts during a special session of the legislature this year. Democrats have used that resentment on the campaign trail to encourage a voter wave that will help buoy their party, which has underdog status in every congressional race.