Who’s Who in the Midterms: Republican Candidates Lead the Financial Race

The most recent campaign finance reports, filed last week, give the first look at candidates’ cash on hand for the general election and provide insight into who is funding the races as they head toward their finish.

The Tennessee gubernatorial race is playing out about as expected, with Republican U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn’s Q3 report ending with a balance of more than $3.1 million — significantly higher than Democratic candidate Jerri Green’s Q3 ending balance of $559,538.

But Green raised almost $1 million in Q3, her biggest quarter in this race, mostly from individual donors, unions and party support. But unsurprisingly in a deeply conservative state, Blackburn topped that with more than $2 million in contributions this quarter, largely from political action committees. 

The two independent gubernatorial candidates are running very different races. David Hatley carries the largest balance of any candidate with more than $6.85 million at the end of Q3, but his campaign is self-funded, with outstanding loans of $12 million from himself. Lauren Pinkston has $38,176 on hand, having raised $149,637 from individuals.

Possibly more interesting than who is funding the race to the governor’s mansion is the fundraising for Tennessee’s toss-up congressional districts, which are garnering nationwide attention following the state legislature’s successful gerrymandering efforts. 

After the districts were redrawn, incumbent 5th Congressional District U.S. Rep. Andy Ogles lost in the Republican primary to former state agriculture commissioner Charlie Hatcher. Meanwhile, longtime Democratic 9th Congressional District U.S. Rep. Steve Cohen decided not to seek reelection in his redrawn district. With both incumbents gone, Hatcher faces Democratic candidate and Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder in the 5th, while state Rep. Justin Pearson (D-Memphis) faces state Sen. Brent Taylor (R-Memphis) for the 9th. The 5th and 9th now split Williamson County but do not include any of Davidson County.

Federal Election Commission filings on Oct. 14 show super PAC MAGA Inc. spending more than $100,000 in digital advertising against Democrats in Tennessee races for the first time this year. The PAC spent more than $75,000 on ads against Molder and more than $25,000 on ads opposing Pearson.

“Nobody spends money defending a district they drew to be safe unless they’ve seen numbers that scare them,” says Tucker Karnes, Molder’s campaign manager, in a release. “They’re pulling out of swing seats to prop up Charlie Hatcher in a district the president won by 23 points.”

Nashville’s split delegation now consists of the 4th, 6th and 7th Congressional Districts, which are all considered safe for Republicans. Longtime 4th Congressional District incumbent U.S. Rep. Scott DesJarlais has more than $522,000 on hand and has raised $635,000 as of his October report. His Democratic challenger, little-known Democrat Victoria Broderick, has just shy of $9,000 on hand, and has raised a total of $80,391 in the race.

The 7th Congressional District race sees Republican U.S. Rep. Matt Van Epps running to retain the seat he just won last year in a special election. He holds $308,000 on hand and has raised $739,000 this election cycle. Democratic candidate Darden Copeland has $120,000 on hand and has raised $272,000. 

The 6th Congressional District is an open race. State Rep. Johnny Garrett (R-Goodlettsville) has nearly $297,000 on hand, having raised $1.5 million in his first run for U.S. Congress. He’s likely to take the seat formerly held by U.S. Rep. John Rose, who is not seeking reelection after a failed bid for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. Democrat Mike Croley holds about $23,000 and has reported earning more than $68,000 in the race.

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Marquita Bradshaw — who faces incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Bill Hagerty, to whom she already lost in 2020 — holds about $26,000 and has raised $34,000. Hagerty has raised nearly $13.7 million this cycle, with about $5.3 million cash on hand.

Who’s Who in the Midterms: Breaking Down the Nov. 3 Ballot

With early voting now open in the Nov. 3 election, we break down what’s on the ballot