Tomorrow, John Cooper will be sworn in as Metro Nashville’s ninth mayor.
Today, we will wildly — and perhaps irresponsibly — speculate about who may be the 10th.
It’s a bit of a tradition at the media empire now known as FW Publishing: The Nashville Post first speculated on the 2015 mayoral election way back in 2010, and the now-defunct City Paper started handicapping the race well before anyone was in it.
The 2023 Metro elections are still four years off, and plenty will happen to change the type of person who runs. Cooper could have a successful tenure as mayor, and resultant popularity and his millions of dollars could scare off any serious challenger. In that case, an upstart seeking name recognition or to drive the debate could enter the race with little hope of winning.
Until this year, Metro mayors generally didn’t have to worry much about re-election. But the series of events that led to Cooper’s election could permanently break Nashville’s incumbency dependency, or so one theory goes.
Another scenario: Cooper is moderately successful and moderately popular, but does not fully deliver on his campaign promises of fundamental change to the city’s finances, things that could take several years or are nearly impossible. That or anything less could open the door to a more serious challenger in 2023, one who — like Cooper himself this year — sees a flawed incumbent and a lane to the top job.
All that goes out the window if Cooper decides against re-election. Given that he had mostly decided to leave the Metro Council to set up a think tank shortly before launching his mayoral bid, that doesn’t seem too far-fetched. And if his brother Jim vacates Nashville’s other top political prize — his U.S. House seat — in 2022, this list could be further scrambled, as anyone who’s ever seen an episode of The West Wing vies for the rare chance to spend a couple decades in Washington.
So here it is, your list of who to watch in 2023, based on speculation from Metro insiders and other questionable sources. The hypothetical candidates were not given the chance to respond, in part because few in their right mind would confirm interest in seeking a job before the next officeholder is even sworn in.
Bob Mendes: Fresh off an at-large Metro Council race in which he was the highest vote-getter by a significant margin, Mendes finds himself in a new position of prominence. Vice Mayor Jim Shulman appointed him the new chair of the budget and finance committee, all but assuring conflict with the new mayor over property tax rates. Cooper often praised Mendes during the campaign, even dubbing him Well-Known Progressive Voice Bob Mendes™ during one debate. More people mentioned Mendes as a candidate to watch than anyone else. The timing didn’t work for him this time around, but what he told us last year leaves his options open: "I’m not going to run for mayor in 2019. My kids are in high school now, and I don’t want to miss their last few years at home.”
Matt Wiltshire: The Ivy League-educated former investor led economic and community development under mayors Karl Dean, Megan Barry and David Briley. That background would create a clear contrast with Cooper should he decide to run, as Cooper’s campaign frequently bashed the sorts of deals struck by Wiltshire.
Carol Swain: Cooper is bound to disappoint some of his Republican supporters because he is, well, a Democrat. And Swain surprised some by coming dangerously close to besting Briley and making the mayoral runoff this time around.
John Ray Clemmons: While we’re rehashing names from the 2019 campaign, we might as well mention Clemmons, the Democratic state representative who finished fourth. He modestly outperformed some expectations and captured the affection of a certain sort of progressive during the process. He might have his eyes on the other Cooper’s job, though.
Ashford Hughes: When Megan Barry was still in office, it was people like Hughes who she saw as possible successors. It still may be possible, if more indirectly. Hughes advised Barry on labor and workforce development before becoming chief diversity, equity and inclusion officer under Briley. Prior to joining the government, he worked with the Laborers' International Union of North America and as political director at the Tennessee Democratic Party.
Renata Soto: Another Barry-ite, the Conexión Américas co-founder has frequently been the subject of political speculation, particularly in the run-up to this year’s mayoral election. She always publicly swore it off. Now she’s participating in a yearlong leadership fellowship at Harvard and the German Marshall Fund’s Marshall Memorial Fellows program. Things a normal non-politician does …
Charles Robert Bone: A fifth-place finish in 2015 (an expensive one, no less) could make the local lawyer wary of trying again, but he’s stayed involved as an ally to both Barry and later Briley.
Freddie O’Connell: The downtown Metro councilmember raised a bunch of money this year and hardly had to spend any of it on his re-election. He backed Briley in 2019 and could emerge as a leading council contrast to Cooper.
Tanaka Vercher: The councilmember from Antioch was a staunch supporter of Cooper in 2019, but four years is a long time. For the past two years, she led the budget and finance committee, raising her profile, which included this year’s standoff over the budget, a debate that left her at odds with Cooper.
Jeff Yarbro: The Democratic state senator is included on a lot of lists like this. He’s ambitious, he can’t do much in the GOP-dominated legislature, and he’s not afraid of challenging incumbents. Like others, he might be eyeing John Cooper’s brother’s job, instead.
Lonnell Matthews: We cursed Matthews in 2015, then a district Councilmember, when we asked if he was “the next, next mayor.” This is our attempt at lifting the curse. Not that he needs it, exactly: In the years since that profile, he’s been elected to the countywide job of juvenile court clerk. Maybe what we meant was next, next, next, next mayor.
Bob Freeman: Yes, his dad owns this publication. No, that’s not why he’s on the list. The freshman state representative has access to money and a so-far spotless electoral record. He stuck with Briley until the bitter end, which his dad did not.
Harold Love: Another state representative, Love ran unsuccessfully for mayor in the 2018 special election. Those were special circumstances, though, and the Democrat might think he has a better shot in a full-size election.
Christiane Buggs: The name of Love’s niece, a Metro School Board member, has also made its way onto at least a few lists of people eyeing higher office. Though Cooper has promised help for schools, if it doesn’t materialize an education-first challenger might see a lane.
And of course …
Megan Barry: We all know the story. She was the mayor, and now she isn’t. But she could be again. By 2023, her probation will be over (not that it precludes her from running). She retains an undeniable popularity in the city that she seems poised to direct to … something, if maybe not this.
If you plan to run for mayor in 2023, please email me at selliott@fwpublishing.com.
