New Poll Shows Green, Blackburn Within Single Digits in Governor’s Race

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A new poll released Thursday shows Democratic nominee Jerri Green gaining on Republican Marsha Blackburn in the race to be Tennessee’s next governor. 

The poll, conducted last week by TargetSmart Communications, asked 600 likely voters a series of questions relevant to the race. When initially asked who they planned to vote for, 45 percent said Blackburn, 36 percent said Green, 10 percent said independent David Hatley, and 2 percent said independent Lauren Pinkston. The remaining 7 percent indicated they were undecided. 

That 9 percent gap is progress for Green’s underdog campaign in a state that has elected only Republican governors for four straight cycles. The numbers also show Hatley — a conservative independent more likely to split the Republican vote — outperforming Pinkston, who some Democrats have worried will pull votes from Green. 

Pollsters later provided “biographical descriptions” about the candidates to respondents. Each candidate was rated more positively after those statements, but voters narrowly ranked Green (42 percent) above Blackburn (41 percent) when asked who they “trust to address the issues most important to voters.” Another 12 percent said neither, and 4 percent rated both equally. 

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Green, who polled at 34 percent compared to Blackburn’s 55 percent in an August Beacon Center poll, shared the new poll results as “independent” on Thursday. She described the race as a “dead heat” in social media posts, which used the “trust” question rather than the initial ballot question. 

“Once voters learn both candidates’ full bios, Jerri LEADS Blackburn 42 percent to 41 percent!” reads the caption on Green’s Instagram post.

Blackburn’s campaign rebuffed the poll on Thursday.

"Yet another poll in the governor's race designed to convince donors to give to a candidate who won't win, but this time, funded by a radical socialist group,” campaign manager Abigail Sigler tells the Nashville Banner. “Tennesseans have yet to learn how socialist Jerri Green is, but they will, and they will reject her radical agenda."

There is some reason for skepticism. While the poll was not directly commissioned by Green’s campaign, it was paid for by the Progress Fund, a political action committee funded by Knoxville developer and philanthropist Phil Lawson, who has given $50,000 to the PAC this year and is listed as treasurer. So far, Green is the only candidate to receive funding from the PAC. 

In the August Republican primary, runner-up John Rose similarly shared an “independent” poll with ties to Rose supporters, claiming it was within 4 points of Blackburn, which Blackburn’s campaign wrote off as inaccurate. He ultimately lost by 9.5 percentage points. 

A spokesperson for Green did not respond to a request for comment or question about the poll's independence late Thursday.

This article first appeared on Nashville Banner and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.