The Quiet Race to Be Blackburn’s Senate Replacement

As soon as Republican Marsha Blackburn won her spot as Tennessee’s next governor, another race officially began.

Hopefuls began jockeying for position around Blackburn the day she announced her run at the seat, producing a short list that includes Tennessee’s most ambitious GOP figures eying a prized position in D.C.’s upper chamber. Blackburn is expected to resign her Senate seat moments before her Jan. 16 inauguration.

Until then, succession speculation will be a favorite Republican parlor game. Blackburn won a second term in the U.S. Senate in 2024 and will leave four years on the table when she becomes governor in January. The governor retains the right to fill a vacancy by appointment until the next regular November election. There is the theoretical possibility that Blackburn resigns before her swearing-in, gifting Lee legal appointment power, though Blackburn has publicly stated her intent to resign at the last moment. The future unelected senator would serve alongside U.S. Sen. Bill Hagerty until Tennessee voters fill the vacancy on Nov. 7, 2028, the next presidential election.

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Elected Republicans already respond with caution, though it’s clear many have considered the domino effect of Blackburn’s victory. Scene sister publication the Nashville Post posed the question to state Rep. Scott Cepicky (R-Culleoka) at Blackburn’s victory party on Tuesday.

“ Well, you're talking to the wrong guy,” Cepicky said. “You're gonna look at Congressman [Tim] Burchett. You got Glenn Jacobs. I've heard [Defense Secretary] Pete Hegseth, but I don't think that's gonna happen. What you have to look at with Congressman Burchett is, if he leaves, that's an open seat. That's not an appointment, that's an election.”

Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs stood with Blackburn on election night and was an early backer of her governor’s run. The East Tennessee conservative served as campaign treasurer, solidifying a spot in her inner circle, and clearly enjoys the political spotlight. Decades as WWE wrestling phenom Kane gives Jacobs a national profile and media savviness that translates to today’s high-exposure political environment.

Burchett, whose district includes Knoxville and its suburbs, easily survived a reelection challenge and has recently stepped up his social media game. He looks interested in political ascension and would add East Tennessee representation to the state’s Senate delegation, though — as Cepicky pointed out — Democrats have momentum and could make a serious run at his seat in a special election.

Hegseth has strong GOP bona fides, transitioning from a Fox & Friends commentator into Trump’s defense secretary (later officially dubbed "secretary of war"), and resides in Goodlettsville, though he has not built up a particularly strong base within Tennessee politics. Trump’s unpopularity helped sweep Republicans out of power across the country and nearly cost Blackburn — who won the governorship with just 45.5 percent of the vote — her political future. Hegseth’s political brand is synonymous with Trump, and he’s specifically pinned to the American military strikes in Iran that have ignited a politically toxic war. Blackburn is still a canny politician and enjoys being liked; intense midterm blowback tied to the war in Iran immediately made Hegseth’s succession case much weaker. 

Damon Hininger has built an extensive government network as CEO of CoreCivic, the private prisons powerhouse previously known as Corrections Corporation of America, and bankrolls major Republican campaigns around the country. Some whispered about his own gubernatorial aspirations before Blackburn cleared the field. The Senate could be his next stepping stone, but private prisons in general, and Tennessee’s disastrous prison system specifically, have been criticized across the political spectrum. A headline appointment for a major donor wouldn’t sit well with many during a moment when Americans are turning on politicians for a perceived patronage system. Hiningner remains an outside pick because of the bad optics.

Blackburn was asked directly if she would appoint Hininger at her first press conference following the election but did not answer the question.

"We'll have conversations about the Senate at a later date," she said Wednesday. "It's not a conversation for today."