Democrats See Strong Early Voting Trends

Enthused politicos are already buzzing about big shifts in the early vote.

With five days of data, staffers on Republican and Democratic congressional campaigns had the same message Tuesday morning: Suburban counties are voting and rural areas are staying home. It's early to study trends — it’s just five days into early voting before the Nov. 3 midterms — but should they hold, Democrats like 9th Congressional District candidate Justin Pearson and 5th Congressional District candidate Chaz Molder could stand a chance in districts drawn specifically to favor Republicans. Some 47,000 Davidson County residents have already voted early, a nearly 700 percent increase from 2022. (Only a single location was open during the first five days of early voting that year.)

Both Molder and Pearson benefit from Memphis turnout in Shelby County, where early voting is up 81 percent compared to the same period in 2022. The state's Republican supermajority split up Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District, the only seat held by a Democrat, during a special-called redistricting session in May. Pearson and Molder have called the Republican maneuver an affront to civil rights on the campaign trail, as Memphis’ majority-Black district was previously protected under the Voting Rights Act.

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“I’m very excited by how early voting is going, and we have continued to knock doors, make phone calls, and stay neck-and-neck in a district they thought we would not be competitive in,” Pearson tells the Scene on Tuesday. “We were very intentional about going to every county more than once — I’ve run a 15-county strategy. From Shelby County to Williamson County, where we’ve been a dozen times. Maps don’t vote, people do, and I’m watching how many people are showing up compared to last time.” 

To the Scene, the Molder campaign cites high Shelby County turnout paired with depressed numbers in rural areas that favor Republicans as strong indicators that Molder's race against former Tennessee commissioner of agriculture Charlie Hatcher will stay competitive to Election Day. Hatcher and Molder will share a stage Wednesday in Spring Hill. 

Collar counties, so-called because they surround major cities, have early voting boosts across the state. They are prized by both parties because they contain a high number of swing voters, many of whom lean toward Democrats this cycle, citing an unpopular Republican president and rising consumer prices.

Compared to the 2022 midterms, turnout in Rutherford, Wilson, Cheatham, and Williamson counties around Nashville is up more than 55 percent. Clarksville and Chattanooga are running 65 percent and 84 percent ahead, respectively, with the latter seeing more Democrats than Republicans at the polls so far. Knox County is up about 50 percent.

Meanwhile, rural counties, many of which voted overwhelmingly for Trump in three straight presidential elections, are seeing a fraction of this pace where voting has increased at all. With a few exceptions, the entire state is lagging behind 2018 turnout, when the state had open races for both senator and governor.