Worried About Carol Swain's Bigotry? How About Her Competence?

There are many reasons to contemplate with dismay the prospect of a Carol Swain administration, but one that doesn't get talked about much is her competence, or rather the lack of it. A bit of that was on ample display today when she released a five-minute piece of video on her Facebook page called a "Future State of Metro" address. Swain's campaign is themed around the notion of a city careening toward moral, economic and social collapse — a trajectory that only she can reverse. Part of that narrative involves stoking fear of violent crime, as she did once again in her video today, asserting that "last year, Nashville's murder rate was the second highest in our city's history." 

One small problem with that claim: It's factually false. The murder rate in 2017, according to the Uniform Crime Reporting statistics collected and published by MNPD, was 16.5 (per 100,000 population). The murder rate in Nashville was equal to or higher than that in 1969. And in 1973. And in 1974. And in 1975. And in 1977, 1989, 1979, 1980, 1983, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1991, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998. 

It is true that murder spiked last year (a jarring 33 percent jump in the rate from 2016), and that the count (as opposed to the far more important rate) was the second-highest it's been since the inception of consolidated Metro government in 1963. But that spike was not emblematic of broader crime trends: The overall rate of violent crime rose only 2 percent in 2017, still at a level lower than any and every year from 1987 through 2012. In 2017 the rate of burglary was the lowest in history of Metro government, and the rate of rape was the lowest since 1976.

Swain in her video goes on to say that "the rise in the murder rate has been rampant, increasing almost 160 percent in the last four years." Here she is actually using the rate statistics correctly — the rate has more than doubled since 2013. However, if you are going to scare the city into believing that crime is rampant and rising, you should be talking about the crimes (unlike murder, which usually involves people who know each other) that really do randomly victimize Nashvillians ... like larceny, burglary, assault, property crime — all lower in 2017 than 2013, and generally lower in the last few years than they had been for decades.

Swain apologists might respond, "Gee, she said 'rate' when she meant 'count' — a mistake anyone can make, so get off her case." Sorry, not getting off her case. Swain's campaign bio touts her as "an award-winning political scientist, a former professor of political science and professor of law," and The Tennessean's now-infamous quasi-endorsement editorial touts her as an "effective communicator" who "points to her political science credentials as evidence of her understanding of politics and political leadership." Misusing crime statistics in order to paint a false picture of the state of public safety in the city is poor form for any candidate, but is seriously inept and willfully contemptible for an academic social scientist and supposedly effective communicator.