Every 10 years, after the census is tabulated, our General Assembly is required to reflect the population changes across our state in new district maps for our state Senate, state House and U.S. Congressional delegations. The redistricting process is one of the most political exercises our legislators do, as their decisions determine in many ways the future of political power in the state.
This year, that political exercise is very much focused on what is happening to Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District, which includes all of Davidson County — the county has been contained in a single congressional district since at least the 1950s.
Nashville has been represented in congress by Democrats for the past 147 years, with the last Republican representative being Horace Harrison, whose term ended in 1875. GOP legislative leaders have been secretive about their plans for our district and kept their map away from the public until it was unveiled last week. House Minority Leader Karen Camper (D-Memphis) said, “No one in the Democratic leadership has seen or talked or had a conversation about this map until this very moment.”
U.S. Rep. Jim Cooper has represented the district since 2003. He’s one of only two Democrats in Tennessee’s nine-member delegation. If GOP lawmakers succeed in splitting Davidson County, there will be eight reliably Republican seats, dismantling a district that has been Democratic for many, many years. Cooper is not the only one unhappy about the situation — though it will affect him greatly. He has called the plan a “legislative overreach,” saying, “What Republicans could not win in local elections they are stealing through gerrymandering.”
Should the plan gain approval, the new 5th Congressional District would include south Davidson County, in addition to some of Williamson and Wilson counties, and all of Lewis, Maury and Marshall counties. Northwest Davidson County would be pulled into the 7th, which is held by Republican Mark Green of Clarksville. The remainder of Davidson would become part of the 6th, which is held by John Rose (R-Cookeville). Rep. Green has voiced his lack of enthusiasm about the proposed redrawing, which takes away some of the stronger Republican parts of his district. Voters will also suffer as a result of redistricting. Cutting Davidson into three sections will lump together rural voters and urban voters, who have different priorities.
Many believe this gerrymandering could backfire on the GOP. The National Republican Congressional Committee considers Cooper vulnerable because he is seen as not being overly effective in his job, even after serving for three-plus decades. Splitting Nashville could put incumbent Republican members of Tennessee’s congressional district at risk.
How, you ask?
In a recent op-ed for The Tennessean, political scientist Kent Syler points out that Republicans currently have 78 percent of Tennessee’s congressional seats. If they gain the eighth seat, they would control 89 percent of the state’s seats. Syler describes this as unsustainable — and I agree. The fastest-growing counties in Tennessee — Davidson, Williamson and Rutherford — gained more than 233,000 residents according to the 2020 census. Those three counties combined voted for Biden over Trump 54 to 46 percent. Davidson County was 2-1 for Biden. If trends continue as they tend to do, this whole thing could blow up in the faces of the NRCC and Tennessee’s Republicans.
As Syler observed: “Over the years, many Middle Tennessee Democrats have done Republicans a huge favor by self-gerrymandering themselves within urban Davidson County, which has limited their ability to impact congressional races outside of Nashville.” A grab for what Syler called the “hog’s share instead of the lion’s share” could prove problematic for Republicans.
House Speaker Cameron Sexton (R-Crossville) isn’t seeing it that way. He says he has “never bought into the approach that having multiple people represent a big city is a bad thing.”
Still, it does seem that if you’re already ahead in the game — for instance, holding 78 percent of the congressional seats in a red state — you might think twice about the people affected before trying to carve out even more for yourself.
As Syler concluded in his piece: “If legislators unleash these Democratic voters on multiple congressional districts, in addition to the currently Republican but trending Democratic suburbs, it’s eventually going to come back to bite them.”
I think that sums it up.
Bill Freeman
Bill Freeman is the owner of FW Publishing, the publishing company that produces the Nashville Scene, Nfocus, the Nashville Post and Home Page Media Group in Williamson County.
