Thursday, July 29, 2010

Poll Analysis: Haslam's Momentum Stopped by Wamp Attacks

Posted By on Thu, Jul 29, 2010 at 8:23 AM

In this week's Metro Pulse, Frank Cagle analyzes the polling in the governor's race:

• The Haslam campaign has stalled. After spending millions on television between a July 8 WSMV-TV poll and Sunday’s poll, the Haslam number hasn’t moved. A total of 32 percent support in the last poll and 36 percent in this poll is within the margin of error.

• Zach Wamp’s negative ads achieved the purpose of stopping Haslam’s momentum. The ads are also moving undecideds—moving them to Ron Ramsey. Wamp’s numbers between the two polls went from 21 percent to 25 percent, also within the margin of error.

• Ron Ramsey appears to be the default position. He moved from 11 percent earlier to 20 percent in this poll. He’s the only candidate to show a gain beyond the margin of error. Evidently, undecideds looked at the Haslam-Wamp battle and decided to look elsewhere. Ramsey’s problem is that he doesn’t have the money to capitalize on his momentum. Can you win just being “not the other guys”?

The problem here is that Cagle is comparing the Mason-Dixon poll with the Channel 4 poll, and the latter may be flawed. Conducted by a market research firm, not professional political pollsters, it probably didn't screen too closely for likely Republican primary voters. That would explain its high percentage of undecided voters.

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