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At least that's what Nate Silver says. Following breakthroughs in Iowa and Vermont, the rock star statistician came up with a formula
to determine when a voter initiative to ban gay marriage would fail for each state. His methodology:
It turns out that you can build a very effective model by including just three variables:
1. The year in which the amendment was voted upon;
2. The percentage of adults in 2008 Gallup tracking surveys who said that religion was an important part of their daily lives;
3. The percentage of white evangelicals in the state.
So yeah, nothing surprising there I guess. If you're gay in a state with lots of religious white folk you've got a long, long time to wait (which makes this a Good Friday-appropriate post!).
According to Silver's formula, Tennessee won't be riding the rainbow until at least 2022. That puts us in a tie for 48th with Arkansas (now there's something to hang your hat on). We'd tell you what two states Silver says will arrive last to the (totally fabulous) party but, uh, we think you already know.