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Based on at least three of the questions, it's a relatively well-disguised Obama push poll. It got the results it was designed to.
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Silly comment, JG. Which questions? Polls have their inherent drawbacks, but there is no serious argument to be made that the Post/ABC survey is a "push poll." You'll need to find another way to rationalize or dismiss its results.
When presented the possibility now reflected in these polls, the Obama Campaign, and Obama himself, made a terrible mistake projecting a sense of entitlement to the votes of Hillary supporters simply because they identify themselves as Democrats.
Obama failed to fight for every vote in the remaining 11 contests and lost, what, nine of them? He continued to explicitly dismiss the very reality now reflected in these polls.
Obama should have projected a sense that he does not take it for granted that Hillary support would move his way like partisan robots and instead project that he will fight for Hillary's supporters and Independents. Instead, he projected a sense of entitlement to those votes that feeds into what the polls now reflect.
On the night of the last Democratic primaries, McCain did something extremely smart. He made a speech before Obama or Hillary specifically targetting Hillary's supporters. Obama did not.
He has a lot of work to do, and it's work he's created for himself.
Who would do more to bring needed change? Obama 60-26
Of those listed, this is the only question with any bias, one word of it, and it probably would favor Obama. This is hardly a push poll, which almost always gets into specific things about candidates and ask whether that detail makes you more or less likely to vote for the candidate. This poll asks broad questions and does not PUSH information about the candidates at all.
Hey Christian, how's the weather up there on planet hallucination? What exactly is the "very reality" in these latest polls that Obama has explicitly dismissed? Am I missing something here?
As for your comment about Obama's losing 9 of the last 11 contests, how about we try injecting a fact or two. The final 11 contests go back to Mississippi on March 11. Clinton took more delegates in 6, Obama in 4, and one was a tie (mighty Guam). If you go back to March 4, the final 16 contests had Obama winning more delegates in 7, Clinton in 8, plus the Guamtie. Sure, Clinton won 4 of the last 6, but that was mostly about how the states lined up on the calendar (those Reagan Democrat-heavy states backloaded). How Obama's winning the states he was supposed to win and losing the ones he was supposed to lose translates into some kind of unwarranted "sense of entitlement" is hard to fathom. (It sure doesn't seem to be hurting him in Ohio, supposedly one of those places the Dems couldn't win without HRC, where Obama has an 11 point lead in a new poll just released.)
Curious that you label McCain's speech on June 3 "something extremely smart." That speech may well be the most widely panned rhetorical performance by a national candidate in years. Even those on the right thought it was dreadfully conceived and executed.
BB, either you think it was smart for Obama to constantly assert that he'll get Clinton's votes despite what the polls suggested prior to the primaries ending or you think it was a mistake. Personally, I think it was short sighted to project a sense of entitlement to the support of his primary opponent and independents.
I support Obama for President, but I'm not the kind of robot that's not going to recognize clear mistakes that lead to poll numbers showing a near dead heat when Obama ought to be well ahead of McCain.
As to how many of the remaining primaries he lost, I'm not sure how many he lost, thus the question mark at the end of the sentence.
It seems pretty clear that Obama is working hard to win over HRC voters in battleground states, to judge by the general election campaign so far (and it's only been a week or two). Assertions that he would get her voters were mostly made by his supporters, not by him or his top aides. Some do argue that his lead should be bigger than it is, but let's not forget also that in courting moderates and independents he has to undo a lot of damage inflicted on him by Clinton during the primaries. I think he will, but he will have to win over those voters, not just assume they will come to him. On that I think we agree.
Actually, before Penn and Ohio, Obama himself was pretty emphatic he'd get Clinton votes. He repeatedly emphasized he'd get her votes but questioned whether she would get his, referring to the fact that he pulled independents and young, new voters in who might not be as reliably Democratic as Clinton's base. But after Wright and the Appalachian states, he stopped saying it as much.
I'm an Obama supporter too, but Christian is correct that Obama himself was emphatic he'd get her votes.
I should add I think he will get most of them and plenty she wouldn't have gotten.
The only poll that counts is the one held in the voting booths on election day.
Also, there is no such thing as an "independent" voter.
New numbers today: Obama with leads in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. One possible interpretation: Clinton voters are starting to realize that voting for McCain over Obama in order to salve the wound of losing the nomination is like shooting yourself in the face to take your mind off that pain in your knee.
You're up early today, BB, considering you were reportedly hosting a beer bash for the council after the stamp was applied and the the Purcell bashing (much deserved, IMO) was completed.
How's the head?
And the survey lends to the notion that Obama's general election appeal is broader than Clintons. From the AP article:
The Quinnipiac surveys found that while most Democrats back Clinton to join Obama's ticket, clear pluralities of independent voters in all three states were against seeing the former first lady run as his vice president.
"If Senator Obama seriously is thinking about picking Senator Clinton as his running mate, these numbers might cause him to reconsider," Brown said.
"The people who really matter come November -- independent voters -- turn thumbs down on the idea. And, many say they are less likely to vote for him if he puts her on the ticket," he said.
