Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Barry / Presidential Politics That Time of the Month
Posted by Bruce Barry on Tue, May 6, 2008 at 9:45 AM
Comments (6)
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If Obama wins handily in NC, I fail to see where a squeaker Clinton win in Indiana would matter much. I imagine the IN delegates would be pretty much split and therefore Clinton ends the day with a net loss of delegates. Only allows her to claim she didn't get blown out of the water, which is probably good enough for her. But if she should happen to lose both states - by any margins - she should get out (and the DNC leadership should go full-bore on her to do so). But she won't.
As for predictions, I'm waiting for Tom and going with whatever he says. I believe his track record is good on these.
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Notwithstanding recent momentum, how uphill is Clinton's path? Let's go to the trusty CNN delegate counter and plug in some numbers:
-HC wins IN 54-46
-BO wins NC 52-48
-HC wins WV 65-35
-HC wins KY 65-35
-HC wins PR 65-35
-50-50 tie in OR, MT and SD
Result: Obama still holds a 100 delegate lead.
Indiana:
Best Case - O 51 C 49
What I think - C 53 O 47
Worst Case - C 55 O 45
North Carolina:
Best Case - O 57 C 42
What I think - O 54 C 46
Worst Case - O 51 C 48
The happy news for BO was unhappy news for BB's prognostication record. Three observations: (1) The voters of NC did for Obama what the voters of PA did for Clinton: say to the other side and to the party "not so fast; we'll call the shots here." (2) Zogby had a better sampling model than the others in Indiana. (3) When the history of the 2008 primary campaign is written, Clinton's gas tax pander will go down as one big time strategic blunder.
