Tuesday, May 6, 2008

That Time of the Month

Posted By on Tue, May 6, 2008 at 9:45 AM

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Yes, once again the fate of the free world comes down to primary elections in medium-sized states. So how will it go down tonight in North Carolina and Indiana? Let's have those prognostications. Closest aggregate call (net combination of the margins) in the two races wins a one-year membership in the Court of Elite Opinion. I’m going with Clinton 54.2-45.8 in IN and Obama 52.7-47.3 in NC. In IN, the polls have sent a few mixed signals, but on closer inspection you have to believe that Zogby has it right and everyone else has it wrong to think Obama has much of a chance. Add in the likelihood given IN’s demographics that late deciders will tilt heavily toward Clinton, and it’s hard to see how Obama comes closer than seven or eight. In NC, Clinton has unquestionably been closing the gap, but I look for Obama to push the steady 50 number he’s been polling up a few points to make it about a five-point win. End of the night headline: Both claim victory, status quo ante, on to WV. What say you?

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