WTVF-Channel 5 political analyst Pat Nolan
is reporting a Clement campaign poll shows Clement at a surprisingly high 38 percent in the mayor's race. But the Clement campaign is denying that it leaked the poll results to Nolan and says the numbers he's reporting are inaccurate. Nolan says his results came from a source that he doesn't identify. Here are his results:
"Those are not our numbers," Clement press secretary Ben Hall says. "We don't know where those numbers came from. Those are not accurate numbers." Hall says the Clement campaign did take a poll recently but "we're not going to talk about our poll numbers."
To be fair, Nolan points out "any poll from a campaign needs to be taken with a big grain of salt, especially if you only know the raw numbers and don't know much about the methodology or the cross tabs of background information from the poll, which is almost never going to be shared."
But it seems in this case Nolan didn't even know the correct raw numbers. He may have been hoodwinked by a Clement supporter spreading disinformation in an attempt to pump up Clement's fundraising.
Clement wasn't polling this high in any of the campaigns' initial surveys, and he hasn't done anything since then to cause his numbers to go up. And not only are Clement's numbers too high, Karl Dean's are probably too low. After six weeks of TV ads, surely he's managed to rise out of the single digits. Nolan's source did tell him that Dean's name ID has gone up.