Sunday, May 22, 2005
Demography Bites
Posted by Bruce Barry on Sun, May 22, 2005 at 12:03 PM
A recent analysis of population trends confronts Democrats with the grim reality that electoral votes are apt to continue to shift to the South for quite a while to come, leaving Dems with no choice but to find ways to be competitive in Dixie in future presidential races. Ronald Brownstein of the Los Angeles Times (carried by the Knoxville News Sentinel) writes about the study by William Frey of the Brookings Institution:
The projection is that by 2030, if Republicans still sweep the South, Dems would have to win 77% of the rest to build an electoral college majority. Yikes. Time to crack those bibles?
In 2004, as Kerry still reminds audiences, the senator from Massachusetts could have won the White House just by moving Ohio to his column; by Frey's projections, that would no longer be true in 2012, partly because Ohio would fall from 20 to 18 Electoral College votes. Frey's analysis shows the tilt toward the Sunbelt continuing decade by decade. By 2030, he forecasts, the Democratic strongholds of New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Massachusetts and Michigan would lose a combined 17 Electoral College votes. Over that same period, Florida (up nine, to 36) and Texas (up eight, to 42) could gain that many votes alone. Arizona (up five, to 15), which has voted Democratic for president only once since 1952, would be the other big winner. The only Democratic bastion likely to increase in strength is California, which Frey projects would gain one Electoral College vote (to 56) after 2010, and another after 2030.
The projection is that by 2030, if Republicans still sweep the South, Dems would have to win 77% of the rest to build an electoral college majority. Yikes. Time to crack those bibles?
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