In the summer of 1995, Lamar Alexander chartered two 727s to fly Tennessee supporters to Iowa for the presidential straw poll. Former Sen. Bob Dole, who later went on to win the Republican nomination, topped the former Tennessee governor, chartering an entire fleet of buses to haul in flag-waving loyalists from all over the Midwest. His efforts bore fruit. Dole wound up in a tie in Iowa for first place with Texas Sen. Phil Gramm, who had dropped out by the time the Iowa caucuses began the following February.
In reality, straw polls tend to be unscientific and influenced heavily by candidates who try to tip the balance in their favor by importing supporters.
For Alexander—now running his second Republican presidential primary campaign—chartering airplanes, renting cross-country buses, or otherwise shipping in bodies to cast ballots for him in a straw poll is no longer an option. Alexander’s sluggish fund-raising is expected to reach only an estimated $2.5 million by the end of this month instead of the $7 million the campaign had projected. The lack of cash forced layoffs of key campaign staffers last week and has left little room for optimism for the former Tennessee governor’s struggling campaign.
But this is as good an election cycle as any for shoestring budgets. Because, this year, the Iowa Republican party has changed its rules to prevent campaigns from bringing in out-of-state supporters. This year, voting is open only to Iowans who can produce a valid photo ID from the state.
“We’re going to make it Iowans-only so that it is a high-quality event and means something when someone wins or someone doesn’t,” Iowa Republican Party Chairman Kayne Robinson said in a recent announcement of the new rules.
So, if there’s any shred of good news for the apparently withering Alexander campaign, it’s that the straw poll—a critical momentum builder for the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses that begin in February—will be a relatively fair test of organizational strength this time around.
“Steve Forbes would be able to afford to fly in people from all over the place, but we can’t,” one Alexander campaign staffer says. “This time, that won’t matter. What we can afford to do is bus them from Des Moines to Ames.”
Unlike the apparent Republican front-runner, Texas Gov. George Bush, Alexander has spent significant chunks of time in Iowa. He has the endorsement of former Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad and former Iowa Republican Party Chairman Brian Kennedy. And Alexander announced this week that he’s recruited leaders in each of Iowa’s 99 counties.
“Most voters in Iowa couldn’t pick him [Bush] out of a lineup,” Alexander said earlier this week when he announced his county organizations. “His whole objective in this campaign is to make sure the race never gets to the people.”
Alexander is poised to do well—perhaps even win—the Aug. 14 straw poll in Ames. But even if he does, supporters recognize that certain elements must fall seamlessly into place to keep him remotely alive.
There is, first of all, the question of how an Alexander win in the straw poll would play nationally in the news. If the Bush campaign—which is still formulating its strategy for the poll—doesn’t make an openly aggressive effort to win, Alexander’s own victory could seem more trivial than substantive. The Alexander campaign is facing the possibility that it might win and have George Bush say, “Of course Alexander won, I didn’t try,” one operative says. “Alexander’s got to win, and secondly, the press has got to give it the right spin.”
Beyond that, to compete in the television air wars that will inevitably bombard voters starting this coming winter, Alexander would have to leverage the straw poll victory into a successful fund-raising pitch.
“Even if he gets to the Iowa straw poll and wins, he’s only got a few months to crank the money,” one supporter says.
Ted Welch, Alexander’s fund-raising chairman, says it’s still possible to overcome Bush, who, so far, has been able to suck significant Republican fund-raising dollars away from the other GOP candidates. He says cost-saving now doesn’t mean dollars won’t roll in later.
“We think that by hunkering down, by shifting staff, by saving money now so we’ll have more to spend later that we’ll be in good shape,” Welch says.
Possible. But not likely.
Clarification
Last week's "Political Notes" column stated that Democrats sat on their hands on tax reform "perhaps because of their ties to the trial lawyers, who would have also lost a good chunk of income under the proposal." Indeed, the Tennessee Bar Association had serious reservations about the governor's tax reform proposal, but the Tennessee Trial Lawyers Association endorsed it in concept.
To reach Liz, call her at 244-7989, ext. 406, or e-mail her at liz@nashvillescene.com.
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