Given the results of Super Tuesday, George W. Bush and Al Gore could be the only candidates still standing by the time Tennessee and five other states hold presidential primaries next week.
It’s too bad. If Tennessee mattered for the Republicans, it would have been fun to watch the interesting juxtaposition of Tennessee’s own leaders.
The key backers of Bush and McCain are both statewide officeholders—one who received more popular votes in 1996 than any other politician in the history of the state and the other who probably couldn’t attract an invitation to a backyard potluck supper in conservative East Tennessee.
The irony is that the popular guy—Sen. Fred Thompson—is siding with the GOP presidential primary underdog. And the bottom line is that while Thompson is tremendously admired, he probably couldn’t do much in Tennessee for McCain, his Senate colleague and campaign finance ally.
And whereas Bush is likely to win big here, his main Tennessee backer—Gov. Don Sundquist—suffers from plummeting popularity over his continued advocacy of a state income tax. In fact, it is Sundquist’s involvement in Bush’s campaign—he’s the state chairman—that is most often cited as the only real potential Bush weakness here. Bush Republicans fear that Sundquist’s position out on a limb for new taxes could turn voters away from the GOP front-runner—a sort of opposition by association.
Of course, if the theory of voting by association had any merit, McCain would sail to victory in Tennessee.
Robbing Peter
The state’s budget crisis has major cities worried about losing their usual share of tax dollars sent down every year from the Capitol. The concern is so great that it led the big-city mayors to the Hill last week to lobby legislators against raiding local government funds to balance the state budget.
While the mayors walked away apparently optimistic about keeping their fair share, House Finance Committee Chairman Matt Kisber told them that state-shared taxes are ”still on the table“ in budget talks.
So while the mayors put on their best game face, other city leaders aren’t so sure how well the municipalities will fare.
”There’s still the clear possibility“ the Legislature will invade the resources normally shipped to the cities, says Metro Council member John Summers, who’s also a lobbyist at the Capitol.
”I think he [Mayor Bill Purcell] is being optimistic. I think there’s a distinct possibility of the state cutting the city’s share of sales tax,“ Summers says.
He’s one of a handful of Metro Council members who believes Metro officials should at least consider a property-tax increase as long as the money were designated for schools. They want to prevent an effective cut in the city’s education budget for the fiscal year beginning July 1.
That could happen, Summers says, even if Purcell actually proposes more money for schools. After replenishing one-time money the school board dipped into last year, the budget may not include more money for actual classroom instruction.
Beyond that, Summers says it’s probably clear to the mayor’s office—just as it is to Council members—that a property-tax increase will be needed sometime during Purcell’s first term as mayor. So why put it off?
”It would be more logical to go ahead and consider it now,“ he says.
Purcell, however, says he won’t seek a tax increase in his first year, that his first order of business is to prove his administration can manage current revenues.
There has even been some very early, speculative talk of a Council-generated tax increase, although Summers says such an idea is premature and that ”generating a tax increase from Council has historically not happened.“
Rerun
After several weeks of threatening to retire from the school board, that body’s most interesting member, Murray Philip, now says he’s been convinced to run again when his term is up this summer.
If he quit the board, Philip says, ”There would absolutely be nobody there to challenge the status quo.“ He says some of his colleagues on the board encouraged him to run again. Otherwise, he says, ”I could talk myself out of it easy enough.“
To reach Liz, call her at 244-7989, ext. 406, or e-mail liz@nashvillescene.com
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