You can't say the Predators aren't putting their money where their mouth is. Of course, you can also say that their bold gesture last week—a promise to refund the increase in season-ticket prices if the team doesn't reach the playoffs in 2003—won't necessarily provide some magic elixir, either.

The announcement of the money-back guarantee was well timed and deftly positioned. First, it got people talking about the Predators again, in a community where the buzz has been slowly morphing into background noise since the franchise's second season. Second, it shrewdly focuses attention on next year—and diverts it from this year's playoffs, which the Preds once had been so optimistic of reaching.

So far, the refund pledge seems to have generated good vibrations. Many fans applauded the originality of the idea, which appears to be without precedent in big-league professional sports. And it's more than mere gimmickry, since the Predators have in essence wagered $1 million on making the playoffs next year.

On the other hand, the organization may find that the pledge won't fill the growing number of empty seats. It's not that Nashvillians are dissatisfied with the game or the team. The Predators have developed a loyal core of fans. And ticket sales for individual games have steadily risen, indicating that hockey is catching on among a once uninitiated market.

But, as the economy has tightened, corporate budgets that once included season ticket purchases have shrunk, too. The competition for finite ticket dollars is more intense than when the franchise dropped its first puck.

Some fans who originally bought full-season packages, or split packages with friends, simply couldn't find time for all the home games they'd purchased and cut back accordingly. In the eyes of some others, a little of the Preds' early luster has worn off.

Anyone who has ever rehabbed a home can identify with this team. A new franchise, like an old house, needs everything. Unless you have an unlimited budget, you must choose your priorities.

You can make some relatively superficial improvements that will enhance the curb appeal of the place—and leave the more intensive work on plumbing, wiring, heating and cooling and roofing for later. Alternatively, you can make the much heavier (and wiser) investment in systems up front. In that case, though you'll have genuinely improved your home, the improvements won't be obvious from the outside.

That's the path the Predators have chosen. They've been thinking long-term from the very first day. They've invested heavily in youth. They've quietly stockpiled draft picks. They have almost completely resisted the temptation to spend money on free agents who could immediately improve the team but who wouldn't fit into the organization's plans for five years from now.

The Florida Panthers, by contrast, went for immediate gratification and lots of expensive veterans. They reached the Stanley Cup finals in record time for an expansion team, but at an enormous cost to the club's long-term well-being. This season, only the NHL's two newest franchises have fewer wins and points than the pitiful Panthers.

The Predators steadily increased their points total through the first three seasons (though they'll have to push to match last year's output). In almost every statistical category, they've improved on last season.

So far, of course, all that effort has yet to translate into a single playoff game. Barring some remarkable stretch run, there will be no postseason play for the club this year, either. So it's understandable that the community seems less energized about the Predators than in the inaugural season, when the team was Nashville's shiny new civic toy.

Though it's a worthy gesture, the money-back guarantee may or may not improve ticket sales. The Predators' management surely understands that the best guarantor of fuller houses is to follow the old mantra of the Oakland Raiders: "Just win, baby."

How It Looks From the La-Z-Boy: NCAA Tournament Bracket Edition

Men's Tournament

South Regional

First Round:

Duke over Winthrop; Notre Dame over UNC-Charlotte; Indiana over Utah; Southern Cal over UNC-Wilmington; California over Penn; Pittsburgh over Central Connecticut St.; Kent St. over Oklahoma St.; Alabama over Florida International.

Second Round:

Duke over Notre Dame; Southern Cal over Indiana; California over Pittsburgh; Kent St. over Alabama.

Sweet 16:

Duke over Southern Cal; California over Kent St.

Regional Final:

Duke over California

West Regional

First Round:

Cincinnati over Boston U.; UCLA over Ole Miss; Miami over Missouri; Ohio St. over Davidson; Gonzaga over Wyoming; Arizona over UC-Santa Barbara; Xavier over Hawaii; Oklahoma over Illinois-Chicago.

Second Round:

Cincinnati over UCLA; Ohio St. over Miami; Gonzaga over Arizona; Oklahoma over Xavier.

Sweet 16:

Ohio St. over Cincinnati; Oklahoma over Gonzaga.

Regional Final:

Oklahoma over Ohio St.

East Regional

First Round:

Maryland over Alcorn St./Siena winner; Wisconsin over St. John's; Marquette over Tulsa; Kentucky over Valparaiso; Southern Illinois over Texas Tech; Georgia over Murray St.; North Carolina St. over Michigan St.; Connecticut over Hampton.

Second Round:

Maryland over Wisconsin; Marquette over Kentucky; Southern Illinois over Georgia; Connecticut over North Carolina St.

Sweet 16:

Maryland over Marquette; Connecticut over Southern Illinois.

Regional Final:

Maryland over Connecticut.

Midwest Regional

First Round:

Kansas over Holy Cross; Western Kentucky over Stanford; Florida over Creighton; Illinois over San Diego St.; Texas over Boston College; Mississippi St. over McNeese St.; Pepperdine over Wake Forest; Oregon over Montana.

Second Round:

Kansas over Western Kentucky; Florida over Illinois; Texas over Mississippi St.; Oregon over Pepperdine.

Sweet 16:

Florida over Kansas; Oregon over Texas.

Regional Final:

Oregon over Florida.

Final Four:

Duke over Oklahoma; Maryland over Oregon.

Championship:

Maryland over Duke.

Potential Upsets We Just Didn't Quite Have the Guts to Call:

First Round: Hampton over Connecticut.

Second Round: UCLA over Cincinnati; Western Kentucky over Kansas; Pepperdine over Oregon.

Third Round: Southern Cal over Duke.

Three Reasons Why Selection Committee Chairman Lee Fowler Should Be Invited to Bring His Stash to the Next Scene Steve Cohen Pot Party:

1. Gonzaga dumped to 6th seed.

2. Western Kentucky screwed as a 9th seed.

3. Butler (25-5) excluded.

4. Ohio State, after winning Big Ten tournament and sharing league title, slotted as 4th seed and shipped west, while Georgia gets 3rd seed and Illinois (which lost twice to Buckeyes) gets to play in Chicago.

Women's Tournament

Mideast Regional

First Round:

Connecticut over St. Francis; Iowa over Virginia; Florida International over Creighton; Penn St. over UT-Chattanooga; Arkansas over Clemson; Kansas St. over Kent St.; Georgia over Old Dominion; Purdue over Austin Peay.

Second Round:

Connecticut over Iowa; Penn St. over Florida International; Arkansas over Kansas St.; Purdue over Georgia.

Sweet 16:

Connecticut over Penn St.; Arkansas over Purdue.

Regional Final:

Connecticut over Arkansas

Midwest Regional

First Round:

Vanderbilt over Oakland; Wisconsin over Arizona St.; Minnesota over UNLV; North Carolina over Harvard; Florida over BYU; Iowa St. over Temple; Notre Dame over New Mexico; Tennessee over Georgia St.

Second Round:

Vanderbilt over Wisconsin; North Carolina over Minnesota; Iowa St. over Florida; Tennessee over Notre Dame.

Sweet 16:

Vanderbilt over North Carolina; Tennessee over Iowa St.

Regional Final:

Tennessee over Vanderbilt.

East Regional

First Round:

Duke over Norfolk St.; TCU over Indiana; Louisiana Tech over UC-Santa Barbara; Texas over Wisconsin-Green Bay; Cincinnati over St. Peter's; South Carolina over Liberty; Drake over Syracuse; Baylor over Bucknell.

Second Round:

Duke over TCU; Louisiana Tech over Texas; South Carolina over Cincinnati; Baylor over Drake.

Sweet 16:

Duke over Louisiana Tech; Baylor over South Carolina.

Regional Final:

Baylor over Duke.

West Regional

First Round:

Oklahoma over Hartford; Villanova over Pepperdine; Mississippi St. over Boston College; Texas Tech over Stephen F. Austin; LSU over Santa Clara; Colorado over Southern; Colorado St. over Tulane; Stanford over Weber St.

Second Round:

Oklahoma over Villanova; Texas Tech over Mississippi St.; LSU over Colorado; Stanford over Colorado St.

Sweet 16:

Oklahoma over Texas Tech; Stanford over LSU.

Regional Final:

Oklahoma over Stanford.

Final Four:

Connecticut over Tennessee; Oklahoma over Baylor.

Championship:

Connecticut over Oklahoma.