Seven years ago, Bill Purcell stunned reporters gathered outside the front porch of his East Nashville home when he told them that he was running—not for governor—but for mayor. At that time, most political junkies figured Purcell, the former House majority leader, would serve as the Democratic party's loyal cannon fodder against a then-formidable Gov. Don Sundquist, whose career had yet to plummet. The mayor's race was still two years away; every other supposed candidate was deferring an announcement until then-mayor Phil Bredesen decided whether a third term lay in his future.

Now it's Purcell who controls the fate of would-be-mayors. No one, other than perhaps his wife and daughter, knows what he wants. The official word from the mayor's office on his prospects for a third term is, well, there is no official word. The issue, they say, simply hasn't been discussed.

Meanwhile, there's the all-important question about whether he can run at all. In 1994, Nashville voted overwhelmingly in favor of a term limits referendum that restricted Metro Council members to no more than two consecutive terms. The devil in those details is whether those limits also apply to the mayor. The lawyer for the Metro Council says they do. The Charter Revision committee, which is appointed by the mayor, says they don't. The Metro Council says, well, they don't want to get involved. Last week, they voted not to put the matter of mayoral term limits before voters in November.

So it will likely take some sort of lawsuit to clarify the issue once and for all. For the many people who believe that the public sector is rife with incompetence, the very fact that Nashville has no idea who's eligible to run the city three years from now is exhibit A.

This confusing matter probably doesn't vex the average citizen. After all, the next mayor's race isn't until 2007. But if you're angling for the job yourself, the uncertainty about Purcell's intentions and the related ambiguity over the letter of the law is probably maddening. On the one hand, it's hard for any candidate to line up support if no one knows the plans of a relatively popular incumbent. Then again, the game of politics is stacked against people who jump in late.

The two candidates most likely to join the race sooner than later are former congressman Bob Clement and at-large council member and former fire chief Buck Dozier.

Clement represented Nashville in the U.S. House for 14 years before he wrongly calculated that Tennesseans wanted him as their United States senator. A born politician now out of politics, the only job that might be to his liking is that of mayor. Just about every observer or prospective candidate you talk to brings up Clement's name. On a recent appearance on the Teddy Bart's Roundtable radio program, Clement seemed eager to talk about local issues, particularly traffic. While in Congress, Clement made public transit his raison d'être and paved the way for the opening of the Clement Landport, which wound up being about as utilized as the flute player in Metallica.

That dubious accomplishment not withstanding, Clement would obviously be a formidable candidate. He certainly would be able to generate campaign cash easier than your average Metro Council member. In addition, after eight years of Purcell's precise but impersonal managerial style, people might grow nostalgic for an affable politician such as Clement.

Then there's council member Buck Dozier, who resigned early in Purcell's first term following a critical audit of his department. For Dozier, running against Purcell—or just deciding to run before the mayor does—might be political payback. A natural candidate, Dozier collected more votes than anyone else in the crowded at-large race.

"Not a day goes by where somebody doesn't ask me to run," he acknowledges. "We're still in the preliminary stages of looking at it."

Unlike other presumed candidates, Dozier doesn't hedge his bets on Purcell's plans. "If I choose to run, whether he's running again will not be an issue for me," he says. "Any mayor would have a hard time winning three terms, especially when I think the people have spoken in favor of two terms."

Dozier is something of a Church of Christ Elvis in Madison, perhaps the most socially conservative outpost of Davidson County. A former mayoral staffer for Bredesen, Dozier loves to play to his strong, rightward base. He needlessly opposed the nominations to volunteer boards of lesbian attorney Maria Salas and former Metro Council member Eileen Beehan, who sponsored a gay right's measure last year.

"I don't oppose the people, never have, never will," he says. "But the lifestyle coming from a Christian perspective is something I disagree with."

In a crowded race matched against progressive and/or young candidates, Dozier would have to be taken seriously. So far in the council, Dozier seems intent to play it cool, staying out of the recent budget debates and getting behind noncontroversial initiatives like studying the feasibility of theme parks.

Vice Mayor Howard Gentry, who presides over the Metro Council every other Tuesday, is also a leading candidate for mayor. "People talk to me about it all the time," he says. "It would be wonderful to be mayor of Nashville and it would be an honor."

But for now, the city's top ranking black official is coy about his plans. "Right now what's important for me is to be the best vice mayor I can be and help the council be as effective a body as possible."

Fine enough, but what everyone knows is that Gentry has been eying a run at City Hall ever since he upset at-large council member Chris Ferrell in the 2002 special vice mayor's election. Unfortunately, Gentry has lost a little of his luster since then. As vice mayor, Gentry is the face of a Metro Council which is to efficient government what the Dream Team is to team basketball. Just a year into its term, the council has already held illegal and secret meetings, engaged in gay bashing, pondered legislation on dog crap and worried about the quality of its bottled water. Gentry hasn't been directly involved in any of those embarrassments, but as the team captain, he is expected to keep those sorts of controversies to a minimum.

"The council has some pretty big image problems," says Pat Nolan, the political analyst for WTVF-Channel 5. "And I think the image of the overall council hurts him more since he's the head of that body."

Still, like Clement, Gentry is a natural on the stump. People like him. At a recent speech at Metro's new teacher orientation, Gentry had the audience rolling with an upbeat, lighthearted talk about how his upbringing in a family of teachers. A former athletic director at Tennessee State University, Gentry is something of a folk hero on Jefferson Street—yet at the same time, in the 2002 vice mayor's race, he won the support of the local business community. Few prospective candidates can claim that kind of diverse backing.

Another presumed candidate from the city's legislative body is at-large member David Briley. A smart, middle-of-the-road East Nashville attorney, Briley is a likely heir apparent to Purcell—at least on paper. His stock dipped last year in the countywide elections when, as a widely-favored incumbent, he had to scrap and claw to re-election in a special run-off. Like Gentry, Briley speaks carefully about a possible candidacy.

"I have had people talk to me about running for mayor at some point and that's very encouraging," he says. Unlike his colleague Dozier, Briley says he will likely not run if Purcell opts for a third term. "I won't run if he runs again. Despite our occasional flare-ups we generally agree on the direction of the city," he says, before adding a little wiggle room. "I think there are some areas where we disagree though."

It's natural when handicapping a mayor's race to look to the city's legislative body for possible candidates. But in the 40-year history of Metro, no council member—or vice mayor—has ever been elected mayor. So citizens who don't spend every other Tuesday at Metro council meetings have more credibility than they might in other cities. Two possible outsiders are Kevin Lavender, a former banker and commissioner of financial institutions for the state, and Frank Garrison, a fund manager and private equity investor.

"I'm interested in public service and in volunteer civic organizations," says Garrison, "But I'm a ways off from making a decision. I would acknowledge it has been discussed in the past but I'm not anywhere near considering it."

A Vanderbilt law school classmate of Bill Purcell in 1979, Garrison practiced law for three years before embarking on a lucrative career in corporate and real estate finance. Garrison declines to discuss his net worth, but he's wealthy enough to have recently donated $1 million to the University School of Nashville. Much like when Bredesen nearly came out of nowhere to win the mayor's office in his first try in 1987, Garrison likely has the means to fund his own campaign. Unlike Bredesen, Garrison won't be starting as far behind since he is already active with several local nonprofits.

Also boasting ample street cred with the Bredesen crowd is Lavender, who served as Bredesen's campaign treasurer in two of his runs for mayor and his 1994 run for governor. A successful entrepreneur, Lavender is in charge of regulating state charter banks, mortgage companies, credit unions and check cashers. Lavender is another credible black mayoral candidate, a good sign for a city that, until five years ago, had never elected an African American to a countywide office, excluding judges.

Like most of his peers, Lavender is flirting with the idea of running for mayor—but isn't exactly looking at engagement rings just yet. "It's an intriguing thought," he says about a possible candidacy. "There are a lot of people putting feelers out. Six or eight months from now I'll really make a decision."

Former Sheriff Gayle Ray is another possible candidate for mayor. One of the most popular elected officials in the 1990s, Ray might struggle to make people forget about her lackluster showing against Jim Cooper in the 2002 Fifth Congressional race. Attorney and former East Nashville Council member Jeff Ockerman is also contemplating a run for City Hall. Meanwhile, former at-large Council member Chris Ferrell, who will almost definitely run for higher office some day—perhaps for state Sen. Doug Henry's seat when he finally calls it quits—says that he'll be on the sidelines in 2007. "I've promised my spouse to focus on making a living and raising our kids for the next few years," he writes in an e-mail.

Over the next year or so, other likely candidates will emerge. Look for Purcell to make some sort of decision about whether to seek another term in mid-to late 2005. That would be midway through his second term. Maybe this time if Purcell holds a press conference outside his front porch, it will mean he's running for Senate.