Technically, my friend Bill didn’t see his beloved Indiana Hoosiers win the national championship in 1987, though he was there at the Superdome in New Orleans. A couple of us who were there with him recollect that Bill had covered his eyes—the suspense was too great—when Keith Smart hit the famous game-winning shot against Syracuse. Bill maintains that his view was blocked by a fat woman who stood up in front of him at the critical moment.

His momentary lapse (or blocked view) notwithstanding, Bill is a rock for Indiana. Every March, when filling out his NCAA tournament brackets (in ink), Bill tabs the Hoosiers for at least the Sweet 16 and often beyond. In spite of jaw-dropping first-round losses to teams like Pepperdine and Richmond over the years, his faith remains unshaken.

Sure enough, as we compared picks Monday at the Scene Sports Desk in McCabe Pub, Bill not only had predicted two wins for the Hoosiers (I concurred), but was progressively convincing himself that Indiana could beat Stanford to reach the regional finals. Some people would call that foolish optimism, but I found it strangely gratifying. After all, amid a tournament whose most predictable winners are surprise and uncertainty, it’s nice to know there are a few things you can count on in Bracketville.

In that spirit, here are a few tips, courtesy of our committee of way, way insiders, to guide you as you prepare for your own NCAA pools this week.

Most Likely to Suck Seeds: Kansas (a consistent underachiever these days); Virginia (like George Jones concerts back in the day, you never know whether the star will show up).

Frequently Sucking Seeds Who Won’t Suck This Year (We Think): Arizona (perhaps the field’s most talented team, and peaking at the right time); Indiana (now that the giant monkey in the red sweater is off their backs, the Hoosiers may get off the ground).

Most Likely to Play Stupid: Tennessee (more distinct personalities than Sybil, fewer smart decisions than the state Legislature); Cincinnati (Exhibit A: at the end of the Bearcats’ conference tournament championship, Kenny Satterfield burned a critical timeout because his headband slipped down unfashionably over his nose).

Gutsiest Pick: Hofstra over UCLA. Don’t bet the ranch, but don’t be surprised if UCLA and its Final Four talent goes down. When the going gets tough, the Bruins can get weird.

Most Gutsy Looking but Less Out There Than You’d Think Pick: Georgia St. over Wisconsin. In fact, this is the hippest pick of the bracket. Everybody knows about Wisconsin’s disruptive D. But Georgia St. is populated with big-school transfers on a mission. A lot of folks think they’re going to win this game.

Most Likely Coaching Brawl: Temple vs. Texas. The Longhorns’ roostery Rick Barnes has a knack for provoking other coaches, and Temple’s volatile John Chaney (who once tried to choke UMass’ John Calipari) is never more than two ticks away from detonation.

Most Dangerous No. 3s: Maryland (the Terps are better than their record suggests); Florida (despite injuries that would have devastated most teams, Billy Donovan’s bunch can still smoke anybody).

Otherwise Stellar Teams With Most Problematic Achilles Heels: Kentucky (if tight D turns Tayshaun Prince into a frog, the Wildcats are short on outside shooting); Ole Miss (for the Rebs, a 3-point play is eight free throws); Boston College (long on quickness but short); Tennessee (a white shirt and orange tie where a controlling presence ought to be).

Most Likely Alternate Final Four Scenario if the Predictions Below Don’t Quite Work Out: Michigan St., Illinois, Maryland, and Kentucky.

How It Looks From the La-Z-Boy—Men’s Tournament

East Regional

First Round: Duke over Monmouth; Missouri over Georgia; Ohio St. over Utah St.; UCLA over Hofstra; Oklahoma St. over Southern Cal; Boston College over Southern Utah; Creighton over Iowa; Kentucky over Holy Cross

Second Round: Duke over Missouri; UCLA over Ohio St.; Boston College over Oklahoma St.; Kentucky over Creighton

Sweet 16: Duke over UCLA; Kentucky over Boston College

Regional Finals: Duke over Kentucky

West Regional

First Round: Stanford over NC-Greensboro; St. Joseph’s over Georgia Tech; Cincinnati over BYU; Indiana over Kent; Georgia St. over Wisconsin; Maryland over George Mason; Arkansas over Georgetown; Iowa St. over Hampton

Second Round: Stanford over St. Joseph’s; Indiana over Cincinnati; Maryland over Georgia St.; Iowa St. over Arkansas

Sweet 16: Stanford over Indiana; Maryland over Iowa St.

Regional Finals: Stanford over Maryland

Midwest Regional

First Round: Illinois over Northwestern St. or Winthrop; Charlotte over Tennessee; Syracuse over Hawaii; Kansas over Cal St. Northridge; Xavier over Notre Dame; Ole Miss over Iona; Butler over Wake Forest; Arizona over Eastern Illinois

Second Round: Illinois over Charlotte; Kansas over Syracuse; Ole Miss over Xavier; Arizona over Butler

Sweet 16: Illinois over Kansas; Arizona over Ole Miss

Regional Finals: Arizona over Illinois

South Regional

First Round: Michigan St. over Alabama St.; California over Fresno St.; Gonzaga over Virginia; Oklahoma over Indiana St.; Temple over Texas; Florida over Western Kentucky; Providence over Penn St.; North Carolina over Princeton

Second Round: Michigan St. over California; Oklahoma over Gonzaga; Florida over Temple; North Carolina over Providence

Sweet 16: Michigan St. over Oklahoma; Florida over North Carolina

Regional Finals: Florida over Michigan St.

Final Four

Duke over Stanford; Arizona over Florida

Championship

Duke over Arizona

Women’s Tournament

East Regional

First Round: Connecticut over Long Island; Colorado St. over Maryland; Villanova over Drake; North Carolina St. over Delaware; Penn St. over TCU; Louisiana Tech over Georgia St.; Missouri over Wisconsin; Georgia over Liberty

Second Round: Connecticut over Colorado St.; North Carolina St. over Villanova; Louisiana Tech over Penn St.; Georgia over Missouri

Sweet 16: Connecticut over North Carolina St.; Georgia over Louisiana Tech

Regional Finals: Georgia over Connecticut

Midwest Regional

First Round: Notre Dame over Alcorn St.; Virginia over Michigan; Utah over Fairfield; Iowa over Oregon; Colorado over Siena; Vanderbilt over Idaho St.; Florida St. over Tulane; Iowa St. over Howard

Second Round: Notre Dame over Virginia; Iowa over Utah; Vanderbilt over Colorado; Iowa St. over Florida St.

Sweet 16: Notre Dame over Iowa; Vanderbilt over Iowa St.

Regional Finals: Notre Dame over Vanderbilt

Mideast Regional

First Round: Tennessee over Austin Peay; St. Mary’s over Texas; Clemson over Chattanooga; Xavier over Louisville; LSU over Arizona St.; Purdue over Cal-Santa Barbara; Denver over Virginia Tech; Texas Tech over Penn

Second Round: Tennessee over St. Mary’s; Xavier over Clemson; Purdue over LSU; Texas Tech over Denver

Sweet 16: Tennessee over Xavier; Purdue over Texas Tech

Regional Finals: Tennessee over Purdue

West Regional

First Round: Duke over Wisconsin-Milwaukee; Baylor over Arkansas; Southwest Missouri St. over Toledo; Rutgers over Stephen F. Austin; Old Dominion over Washington; Florida over Holy Cross; Stanford over George Washington; Oklahoma over Oral Roberts

Second Round: Duke over Baylor; Rutgers over Southwest Missouri St.; Florida over Old Dominion; Oklahoma over Stanford

Sweet 16: Rutgers over Duke; Oklahoma over Florida

Regional Finals: Oklahoma over Rutgers

Final Four

Oklahoma over Tennessee; Notre Dame over Georgia

Championship

Notre Dame over Oklahoma