If it wasn’t obvious already, it is now: The governor’s race is Phil Bredesen’s to lose.
In a bit of an anticlimactic maneuver this week, Democratic 5th District Congressman Bob Clement bowed out of next year’s governor’s race, citing his wish that the Tennessee Democratic Party unite behind a consensus candidate. That appears to be Nashville’s former mayor. While there are some less politically significant candidates in the race—and perhaps others yet to jump in—none has the resources or standing that Bredesen does.
“I had hoped my work to unify the Democratic Party behind my candidacy would bear fruit,” Clement said in a statement. “Since there appears to be no shortage of quality Democratic candidates for governor, I have decided that an expensive and divisive primary is not in the best interest of the Tennessee Democratic Party.”
Clement’s decision, of course, comes as little surprise. His uncertainty about running became more and more significant with each of the last 30 days. For the past two weeks, pretty much everyone inside the 440 beltway knew that Clement didn’t have the fortitude for a tough primary challenge. Meanwhile, he was roundly resented for lacking the courage just to say so.
Not only does his decision—finally—seal Bredesen’s stature as the Goliath Democratic candidate, it puts an end, at least for right now, to the congressional ambitions of Vice Mayor Ronnie Steine, at-large Metro Council members David Briley and Chris Ferrell, and any number of other would-be public servants.
Unless something really dramatic happens very soon, it doesn’t take a political scientist to conclude that next year’s general election will feature Phil Bredesen against Republican Congressman Van Hilleary, who is viewed as the Bob Clement of the Republican Party—well-meaning and hardworking, but not the kind of independent-minded, risk-taking, star-powered politician who excites the electorate.
Beyond the advantage of personal wealth, which Bredesen could use as leverage, he also has a reputation as a schooled financier, a quality that would no doubt be attractive to a pool of 3 million voters weary of hearing about Tennessee’s crumbling tax structure.
Already, a Mason-Dixon poll has weighed the candidates’ chances of victory. The poll, commissioned by the Chattanooga Times Free Press, showed that Bredesen would get 40 percent of the vote in a general-election contest against Hilleary, who would get 37 percent. Given the margin of error, that’s a dead heat (not that a poll at this early point means much).
The Democratic primary picture was also a statistical dead heat, but Bredesen had the edge. The poll, which sampled 405 voters, showed that Bredesen had 33 percent support to Clement’s now irrelevant 28 percent. Charles Smith, a former Tennessee education commissioner and former chairman of the Tennessee Board of Regents, had 3 percent support.
“They’re all close, and they’re all competitive,” said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.
Another drama
Sen. Fred Thompson and “bombshell” are often mentioned in the same breath, but usually that bombshell is on his arm.
There could be another one in the works. The popular senator isn’t committing to a reelection bid next year, a development that has all manner of ambitious political wannabes salivating over the prospect of the prestigious job and its $133,600-a-year salary.
“I still haven’t decided,” Thompson told Washington, D.C.’s The Hill newspaper. “I’m still weighing lots of different things, lots of different things.” Beyond that, Thompson said he didn’t want to say too much because “I can’t get into it without really getting into it, and I don’t want to upset the Tennessee reporters.”
Thompson has already disappointed fellow Republicans once this year, announcing in February, to the great chagrin of party leaders, that he wouldn’t seek the governor’s office next year. “I’m drawn to the challenge that being governor of Tennessee would present and the opportunity to contribute to my state in that way,” Thompson said at the time. “But on balance, I think I need to stay here and face this year without the clutter of a new campaign.”
Only one Tennessee Republican was happy about that announcement: Congressman Van Hilleary, now the presumed GOP frontrunner.
It’s noteworthy that while Thompson wouldn’t have to worry much about raising the cash for a reelection bid, he nevertheless hasn’t been actively doing it. He easily won a special election in 1994 for the office with 60 percent of the vote, then won election to his first full term in 1996 with 61 percent of the vote.
Obviously, Thompson’s ultimate decision will have a ripple effect not just in Tennessee but in the U.S. Senate, where his party has just lost its equal footing with the switch of Republican Sen. Jim Jeffords to independent status.
Already, pols are lining up to keep Thompson’s seat warm: Memphis Democratic Congressman Harold Ford Jr., who enjoyed being treated more seriously than he should have been last year as a possible challenger to Republican Sen. Bill Frist, and four-term Republican Congressman Ed Bryant, among others.
As The Hill noted, if it were any other U.S. senator, such indecision now would almost certainly signal impending political retirement. With Thompson, however, who is so independent as to be unpredictable, there’s no telling.
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