News
By Bruce Barry
John Kerry's post-convention bounce may look underwhelming, but he successfully showed undecided voters that he is thoughtful, articulate and prepared. Even so, history suggests that when presidents seek second terms, it's mostly about the incumbent, thumbs up or thumbs down. Republicans should be plenty worried about W's chances, and here are 10 reasons why:
1. The so-called war on terror. Americans may trust Republicans more than Democrats on terrorism, but the gap is closing. A New York Times/CBS News poll in July showed 51 percent approving the president's efforts to combat terrorism, but his approval rating on foreign policy generally dipped below 40 percent. The Wall Street Journal editorialized last week that "Americans know he [Bush] is willing to act in our national defense." But with U.S. diplomatic prestige in the tank, John Kerry can assert that "willing to act" is not the same as acting wisely.
2. Iraq 'em up. Kerry needs to join the majority of Americans who now say the Iraq war was a bad idea from the start. In the Times/CBS poll, 58 percent disapproved of Bush's handling of Iraq, and 62 percent said the war was not worth the costs in lives and dollars. Bush continues to imply not so subtly that Iraq has something to do with 9/11-style terror. Kerry gains the upper hand by reminding voters that Iraq was a war of choice, and that preemption is a doctrine of recklessness.
3. Is it safe? Foreign policy discussions these days revolve around notions of safety, security and stability. Is the world safer than in 2001? Is the U.S. more secure? Is the Middle East more stable? Bush's argument: We're safer because I invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, and there have been no terrorist attacks at home. Kerry's persuasive reply: We've turned post-9/11 international goodwill into widespread anti-Americanism, and with a destabilized Middle East and weakened international institutions to boot. In his reinvented stump speech, Bush promises that "after four more years, America will be more secure and the world will be more peaceful." Not bloody likely.
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4. Econ job. With the economy a disorderly mix of good and bad news, both parties will find it a hard sell. Bush can say without embarrassing himself that the economy is growing and unemployment is in check. Kerry's effective reply is that job growth is meager, state and local tax burdens are rising, middle-class wages are stagnant, and the costs of health care and higher education are soaring. Mounting deficits also hurt Bush, who claims with a straight face that a record $445 billion budget deficit is good news (because forecasts last winter were even higher). Kerry benefits by hammering home the obscene cost of the misadventure in Iraq and tying it to underfunded domestic priorities.
5. Class act. When Democrats point out that Bush tax cuts have disproportionately benefited wealthy people, Republicans don't deny the charge, because it's accurate; instead they complain about "class warfare." (Sometimes they flat-out lie about it, as Bush did last Friday when he said this: "We didn't play favorites with the tax code, we didn't try to pick winners or losers.") Kerry wants to repeal the tax cut for incomes over $200,000, and use it to expand health insurance and moderate health care costs. The "class warfare" trope might be red meat for right-wingers, but moderates in the middle know a class society when they see one.
6. Race to the bottom. Bush will, of course, lose overwhelmingly among black voters. In a recent speech to the Urban League, he urged African Americans to give Republicans a closer look. This rang hollow given his administration's hostility to affirmative action and indifference to joblessness and urban poverty, and his utter unconcern about the disenfranchisement of an estimated 1 million African Americans in the 2000 election. In swing-state cities like Philadelphia, St. Louis, Milwaukee and others, black turnout will really matter.
7. Going negative. The Bush campaign has spent millions on attack ads in key states this summer accusing Kerry of everything short of child molestation. The result: Kerry's favorable ratings mostly held steady or improved a bit, as has his lead in head-to-head polls. The ad wars will rage on, but there's little left for Bush to say about Kerry (a waffling do-nothing senator; a taxoholic northeastern L-word flipflopper) that hasn't already been tried. Advantage Democrats, who have largely avoided negative ads; they enter the fall campaign with a potentially toxic assault on the Bush presidency still undeployed.
8. Dick. Dan Quayle showed convincingly that running mates don't matter much, but this one will. Dick Cheney was supposed to bring maturity and stability to the Bush 2000 ticket. It turns out he brought mature, stable forms of belligerence and condescension, with a dose of crony capitalism thrown in for good measure. The contrast between Cheney and the populist if cloyingly earnest John Edwards will send at least a few undecided voters Demward.
9. Choices. Republicans are quick to blame 9/11 for anything that hasn't gone right since 2001. Ballooning deficits? Hey...9/11. More people without health insurance? Um...9/11. Job losses? Yep...9/11. In his convention speech, Bill Clinton deftly rejected knee-jerk 9/11ism, framing GOP policies as conscious, deliberate choices. "If you agree with these choices," Clinton said, "you should vote to return them to the White House and Congress." Democrats obviously cannot shrug off 9/11, but they will remind voters forcefully that Bush's actions, not al-Qaeda's, are the issue on Nov. 2.
10. The end of ignorance. The voting public is not as dim as many assume, and its tolerance for presidential vapidness has limits. Feeling mysteriously compelled to defend their man's every utterance, intelligent Republicans debase themselves when they cheer W's rejection of complexity, or his boast that the Leader of the Free World has no need for newspapers. Bush will lose as swing voters come around to the British Poet Edith Sitwell's view: "I am patient with stupidity but not with those who are proud of it."