ISO Cash

It’s not even a certainty that Tennessee will have a presidential primary, but Democratic candidates are already making moves in the state to line up key supporters for the 2004 race.

Because of the state’s modest size and lack of privileged position in the nominating process, probably the most important role it will play is in fund raising. Tennessee has long tried to maneuver to maximize its clout in picking a president, best illustrated perhaps by its role in the dramatic 1988 Southern regional primary effort. But with many of the large states now moving their primaries up to the early weeks of the process, Tennessee is more likely than ever to be irrelevant. So the General Assembly is considering eliminating the primary altogether as a money-saving measure.

Meanwhile, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards has been in the state raising money and is returning here in June for the fourth time in just over a year. Edwards practiced law in Nashville for several years before moving back to North Carolina, and he retains some connections in the state. He was a surprising early leader in campaign contributions with $7.5 million, largely through the network of trial lawyers.

Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, who co-opted much of Al Gore’s national fund-raising network, meanwhile, has been wooing Gore’s key money man, Johnny Hayes, to sign on to help the campaign, as have most of the other candidates. At this point, Hayes is unwilling to make a commitment to any of the candidates.

Kerry had a Nashville fundraiser here earlier this week, hosted by a number of leaders in the local music industry.

Former House Democratic Leader Richard Gephardt has also been in the state. During his 1988 race, he lined up the early support of Tennessee Congressmen Bart Gordon and Jim Cooper, although both backed away when Gore entered the race. Gordon is backing Gephardt again this time around, though Cooper hasn’t endorsed a candidate to date.

Gephardt is a less compelling candidate these days, however. In 1988, he was an up-and-coming leader in Congress—a potential speaker, even if he didn’t go to the White House. After stepping down as party leader following last fall’s midterm election, Gephardt now looks much more like someone on the downslide.

“Of course, the whole game is to get the governor,” observes Nashville attorney Byron Trauger, who was Bill Clinton’s key leader in the state in 1992 and is also close to Gov. Phil Bredesen. Lining up the governor means most of his key supporters and fund-raisers will get on board. At this point, Bredesen hasn’t made a decision about whether to support any candidate.

To lead is to choose

Some recent fire over the deals he cut to get President Bush’s tax cut bill moving in the Senate may be teaching Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist the same lesson that Howard Baker, an earlier Tennessee majority (and minority) leader, learned. While the visibility and clout of the job may be nice, they don’t necessarily help if you harbor broader ambitions.

Frist worked a deal to secure passage of a $350 billion tax cut, which was smaller than the $750 billion the president sought but considerably larger than nothing. As a rank-and-file senator, it’s easy to stake out a position firmly on one side or another of an issue. But as a party leader charged with actually getting things done, Frist has to make decisions about what realistically can be accomplished.

This means a choice between sticking to principle and cutting a deal to take what he can get. Different situations call for different choices, but the inevitable outcome is displeasing to someone.

That’s why conservatives were always distrustful of Frist’s predecessor, Trent Lott—even though his conservative credentials were pretty solid. Similarly, Baker found that when he ran for president in 1980, much of the party’s right wing bore grudges about the practical decisions he’d had to make as Senate minority leader.

Blowin’ in the wind

Newly elected Congressman Lincoln Davis has always had a reputation as a finger-in-the-wind kind of guy who doesn’t get too far away from the safest precincts of politics, regardless of personal conviction. Anyone who worries about whether he has any would probably be heartened by the 4th District Democrat’s Web site, which includes a link promising “Briefs on Congressman Davis’ Beliefs on Major Issues.” But apparently Davis is still working on developing his convictions. Click on the link, and all you get is the promise that the revelations are “Coming Soon!”