He's Baaaaaaaack

Another election year is just around the corner, and Tennessee Democrats find themselves without a credible candidate for a major public office once again. With no one of any stature willing to challenge Republican Sen. Bill Frist, it appears more and more likely that John Jay Hooker, the only candidate now declared, will claim the Democratic nomination. That would make the once proud party the object of a new round of ridicule, and damage Al Gore’s prospects for winning his home state in the presidential election.

For statewide races, it would mark the third straight time that Democrats have failed to produce a nominee with any real hope for success. Houston Gordon, an unknown lawyer from Covington, managed only 37 percent of the vote against Sen. Fred Thompson in 1996, and Hooker took only 31 percent in his ignominious loss to Gov. Don Sundquist in ’98. At least Gordon, who later became the party chairman, wasn’t viewed as a kook. The eccentric Hooker, virtually penniless in the sunset of a mercurial life, never campaigned at all and spent much of his time denouncing the media for mocking his Abe Lincoln getup.

It’s not that the party lacks leaders with potential statewide appeal. U.S. Reps. John Tanner and Bart Gordon would make strong nominees. But neither is willing to surrender his congressional seat for a risky campaign against Frist. The senator has already collected some $4 million in contributions and could sling a few million dollars of his own considerable wealth into the race, if necessary.

With Gore’s help, party leaders thought they had persuaded U.S. Rep. Harold Ford Jr. of Memphis to make the race. A centrist Democrat, Ford was fresh out of law school when he won his seat in ’96; he succeeded his father, Tennessee’s first black congressman. Junior, as he calls himself, probably couldn’t have beaten Frist. Still, Gore was banking on Ford’s candidacy to invigorate black voters and the Democratic base generally. That would have made it easier for the vice president to claim the state’s 11 electoral votes and would have enabled his campaign to focus on the bigger battleground states.

But Ford recently dumbfounded party leaders by demanding that they raise $2 million for his campaign by year’s end—an impossible task even if they wished to undertake it. “That was just an excuse for him to get out of the race,” one insider says. “He wants to say he decided not to take this on because he wasn’t getting the support he needed, which is a load of crap.”

So after months of teasing Democrats and milking the media, Ford now is publicly encouraging the party to find someone else to run. At this point, it’s too late for any candidate to raise the amount of money it would take to mount a competitive challenge to Frist. Unless Democrats discover a multimillionaire willing to finance his own campaign—Phil Bredesen isn’t interested—Frist will skate to reelection, and Gore’s campaign will have to work much harder to turn out Democratic voters here.

The irony is that Frist is clearly beatable by a respectable challenger with a few million dollars to spend on TV ads attacking the senator. In a poll paid for by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Frist defeated Ford handily—49 percent to 26 percent, with the rest undecided. But it’s a real sign of weakness for any incumbent to poll below 50 percent against a relatively unknown potential challenger. Here’s another telling number: Only 47 percent viewed Frist favorably.

Democrats believe a challenger could score points by slamming Frist for his family connection to the embattled for-profit hospital chain Columbia/HCA and by painting the senator as a shill for greedy HMOs. In the poll, only 30 percent knew that Frist is connected to Columbia/HCA. But of those, 44 percent said it makes them feel less favorable toward him.

Party leaders say a few Democrats are mulling the race, now that Ford isn’t running. But as one political pro puts it, “They’re all B-teamers,” and Hooker probably could beat them all merely by virtue of the fact that many voters remember him from his gubernatorial campaigns of 30 years ago, when he was in his heyday. That’s how Hooker won the party’s ’98 gubernatorial nomination, besting a cast of goofy characters that included a small-town radio personality nicknamed “Rooster” and a man named Sherry.

Hooker, who jokes that he’s thinking about switching to a Robin Hood costume for his Senate campaign, says he knows he can’t beat Frist. He’s running only to bring attention to the need to curtail the influence of big money in politics.

“The Democratic Party is defunct,” he declares. “The congressional leadership is only interested in their own perpetuation in power. They’re a bunch of prima donnas. None of them has got the guts to run against Frist. So I’m going to be the nominee.”